Will there be an outright winner or a runoff election?

That’s the question city voters will decide in Richmond’s mayoral contest on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov 3.

Their decision will be disclosed when the ballots are counted after the polls close at 7 p.m. A projected 80,000 ballots will have been cast by early in-person and mail-in voters before the polls even open 6 a.m. next Tuesday.

Estimates suggest more than 130,000 people could participate in choosing the city’s next mayor — the most in decades — in large measure because the contest for U.S. president also is on the ballot.

In the race for the city’s chief executive post, incumbent Levar M. Stoney has emerged as the clear front-runner, according to two recent polls. He is being challenged by four candidates in his bid for a second four-year term: 2nd District Councilwoman Kim B. Gray, attorney and financial expert M. Justin Griffin, businesswoman Stacey V. McLean and domestic worker advocate Alexsis E. Rodgers.

Other indicators confirm Mayor Stoney’s front-runner status. He has outstripped his rivals in fundraising and in endorsements from elected officials, faith leaders and media outlets.

Still, the winner must get the most votes in at least five of the nine City Council districts, otherwise, a runoff election between the top two vote-getters will be held Dec. 15, according to Voter Registrar Kirk Showalter.

Based on polls reported on by the Richmond Free Press, Mayor Stoney leads in the popular vote and appears to be ahead in multiple districts.

However, the polls also indicated he has not secured 40 percent support, with his challengers splitting the “not Stoney” vote that seems to hold a majority. The polls suggest Mayor Stoney’s strongest support is in the 6th, 7th and 9th districts, with a potential to win several more districts, including the 5th and 8th.

The polls also indicate Ms. Gray and Ms. Rodgers are doing the best among the other candidates, with Mr. Griffin and Ms. McLean unlikely to win any of the districts.

Ms. Gray appears to lead in her home district, the 2nd, and the 1st, with a potential to win the 3rd and 4th districts, while Ms. Rodgers appears to be making her strongest showing in the 5th and 8th districts.

Experienced observers have indicated Ms. Rodgers must win at least one district for there to be any prospect of a runoff election. Otherwise, the expectation is that Mayor Stoney will be able to overcome his challengers in enough council districts to win re-election.