If Gov. Ralph S. Northam’s proposal to increase teacher and school staff pay by 10 percent over the next two years wins support from the General Assembly, Richmond taxpayers could feel the impact.

For Richmond teachers and staff to gain the full pay increase, City Hall would have to increase spending on public education by $22 million in each of the next two years, for a total of $44 million, Richmond Public Schools Superintendent Jason Kamras has reported to City Council.

Mr. Kamras told the council’s Education and Human Services Committee on Dec. 9 that such an increase would pay Richmond’s share of the proposed pay boost that the state does not fully fund, plus provide for a yearly cost of living increase for RPS employees and cover the school system’s share of rising health insurance costs.

But that’s all that funding increase would pay for, he said. It would not cover any other improvements in programming or services, such as adding more social workers, nurses or mental health staff.

RPS currently reports serving 21,775 students, or nearly 1,400 fewer than were enrolled in pre-kindergarten to 12th grade in fall 2019 before the pandemic hit.

Mr. Kamras said Richmond and other school districts would have more insight into the potential state contribution for school operations after Gov. Northam delivers his proposed 2022-2024 budget to the General Assembly’s money committees later this week.

Ahead of the announcement, the governor indicated he would propose $2.4 billion in new public school spending, including the pay hike. That kind of potential increase, along with demands for higher pay for police officers, firefighters and other city staff, is the reason City Council did not reduce the tax rate on city real estate this year.

In the past few years, Richmond has raised its contribution to public education. In the current 2021-22 fiscal year, City Council approved Mayor Levar M. Stoney’s allocation of $187.1 million in city taxes for school operations, or a record $8,592 per student, based on current enrollment.

If the mayor and council endorse the two-year, $44 million increase, the price tag for public school operations would rise to $221 million in the 2023-24 fiscal year, equivalent to $10,149 per student in local funding if enrollment remains at the current level.

Mr. Kamras provided the notification to City Council as he updated the committee on school employee collective bargaining, which the Richmond School Board approved at its Dec. 6 meeting.

He said that, if employees approve, the result would be three employee unions bargaining with his administration next spring — one for teachers, one for support staff and one for administrators. He has been supportive of the creation of bargaining units, but said it is too soon to determine the impact on the budget.

On the enrollment front, Richmond, like a number of school divisions, has lost some students since the pandemic began, and more than 500 have not been located.

The pre-pandemic enrollment in fall 2019 was 23,154 students in pre-K through 12th grade, or 1,379 more than the current enrollment of 21,775 as of Dec. 6.

Part of the loss is due to an 83 percent increase in homeschooling, RPS data show. Currently, 858 former RPS students are being educated at home, an increase of 389 from 2019.

Another portion is due to a 26 percent decline in enrollment in pre-K. As of Dec. 6, 1,223 children were in pre-K classes, or 439 fewer than the 1,662 children enrolled in 2019, according to RPS data.

That still leaves the 551 students who are no longer enrolled, but whose where- abouts have not been determined, RPS officials have indicated.